Reincarnated as Nikolai II

When the exile government arrived at the Adriatic coast after such hardship crossing mountain ranges on foot:

"...Is this all that barely escaped alive?"

Only 180,000 survived out of initial 400,000.

Yet even this wasn’t the end.

Though granted asylum by Greece, Serbia’s enemies still abounded.

And what awaited this exile government arriving first was:

"Vasil Radoslavov. Was waiting for negotiations with the Serbian exile government on Russia’s proposal."

"...Bulgarian Prime Minister."

"Two years ago, when Bulgarian refugee influx into Macedonia, your army tried to drive them out with intimidation... now it’s the opposite."

Bulgaria, stained with extreme revanchism - an ideology no European country of this era had reached.

"Ah, truly. I sincerely had much to discuss with you. Though dialogue was cut off before by unilateral treaty breaking, now that such opportunity is made how can I not be glad?"

"..."

"First, well. Shall we talk about that dog Treaty of Bucharest? Romania agreed to break the treaty, but if remaining Montenegro and Serbia agree, we’d like to tear up this damn paper?"

And Bulgaria had too many old stories to share with this country.

"Haha, why start so early."

"...Chairman Rediger."

"Chairman! When were you driven out!"

Of course Russia was there too.

==

"Let’s see, Verdun is as expected."

Originally planning to finish the East before turning west, but this time Falkenhayn had to focus west after being blocked.

Fortunately, Verdun’s history seemed unchanged.

Second year of war. Some things changed, some remained the same.

Quietly leaning back in his chair, checking the situation while organizing European circumstances with his small head.

What changed and what didn’t.

Variables and constants.

Before the war broke out. No, even until last year, I thought America was this war’s biggest game changer.

"United States. The rising power coming to choke exhausted Europe’s throat."

Whatever the process and variables, I thought the war would only end when America came.

Actually, that thought hadn’t changed even until Constantinople fell into our hands last year, for simple reasons.

The Western Front’s structure couldn’t change without America.

I thought no matter what changes happened in the East, our front yard, it wouldn’t be enough to break the Western Front’s solidity.

"But while the Western Front hasn’t changed, France and Britain have changed."

Why did the United States join the Great War?

Germany’s greatest diplomatic blunder, the Zimmermann Telegram asking Mexico to attack America.

The Lusitania sinking or Black Tom explosion in New Jersey.

Plus war sentiment led by immigrants and America’s inherent imperialism.

Well, there may be many incidents leading to America’s participation, but picking just one:

"If Germany won, America’s future was finished."

This seems to be the only one.

If Germany won. No, let’s say they ended the war while at least holding advantage.

First, all British and French bonds America had been buying would become worthless. Naturally both colonial empires’ economies would crash and America would walk downhill with them.

Moreover, if France lost, dominance of the European market handling 90% of American exports might pass to German hands.

No colonies, front yard only being South America, losing initiative to us Russia even in Asia, and now driven from Europe too?

They might surrender not to the sword with Paris falling, but to poverty and economic isolation.

But look at the current situation.

Is America worried about Germany winning, or just thinking about maintaining this prosperity somehow?

If I were them, wouldn’t I want the war to drag on rather than end?

So, my conclusion is very simple.

Now we can’t be certain of American participation. In other words, this country should be seen as a simple variable, not a game changer.

Then let’s assume worst case that America doesn’t participate.

Should Russia negotiate separately with Germany, or stay with allies to the end?

The answer to this is also simple.

"The war mustn’t end. At least not now."

Western Europe hasn’t perished yet.

If the Great War follows the original history’s 5 years, the past year and half was barely prologue.

We’ve just started Verdun. Many events still remain like the Somme, Arras, Hundred Days Offensive.

Each remaining event will greatly cut their national power.

The more desperately they die, the more Russia’s value will rise relatively, but I still see us at the bottom.

Above all, pulling out now would only earn Britain and France’s resentment.

Realistically, with our naval power hitting bottom, the meaning of eating Constantinople disappears the moment we face naval blockade in the Mediterranean.

’If Britain blocks the Black Sea, we’ll have to go eat Suez then too.’

Many reasons but ultimately we can’t leave the war yet.

March 1916. Over a month remains until normal European countries’ wheat planting.

Excluding Russia, in Europe France was first in wheat production, Germany-Poland second, Britain third.

And currently Poland is in our hands, German and French agriculture is wrecked by war, and Britain barely feeds mouths by importing food.

People commonly think only Germany starved from winter 1916, but no.

Germany, France, Britain all starved, Germany just starved most with sea routes blocked.

"This time that winter seems to have come a year early."

Though France, Britain, Germany all implement rationing, turnips entered German ration items from last year.

I hear street bakeries now sell K-Brot bread mixing potatoes, straw, oats, barley, mixed grains instead of wheat bread.

As Falkenhayn’s unlimited submarine operations intensified, Britain is attempting to purchase-sell all commercial crops.

Government hands have reached beyond main ration items of wheat, salt, sugar to some fruits and vegetables.

Even then, poor households eat one meal a day with rations while middle class manages two or three meals.

This war is a great war consuming everything - population, economy, national power.

Meaning everything becomes scarce through extreme consumption.

Eating rye and oats without wheat.

Eating seafood and beans with meat lacking.

Consuming corn oil and syrup instead of butter and sugar.

The rear has now entered the era of substitutes.

However, to my eyes Western Europe is still wealthy and though briefly hungry, doesn’t seem malnourished.

So peace is premature.

Let them get hungrier.

Get poorer.

Until finally ensuring we won’t be excluded from between them with their Great Game, Belle Époque.

"Battle of Verdun is intensifying. German forces seem to be increasing troops from initial 9 divisions. Your Majesty, if you send me to Warsaw, I could watch the Western Front situation and when opportunity comes launch one offensive-"

"Our new Chief of Staff shouldn’t worry about such things. General Brusilov just needs to rest in St. Petersburg then return to the front lines. Understood?"

"...Understood."

Must make it so.

The war will grow longer. Western European Allies, Central Powers, even I still have strength to fight.

This war is one of endurance.

Because whoever stands last is victorious.